Myanmar Tidal Surge Disaster May 2008: My views

I have been looking at earthquake data for sometime since the “2004 Indian Ocean earthquake” (wikipedia link) and trying to make sense of the voluminous data of the other quakes from various quake monitoring agencies.

The latest tidal surge which was pinned on Cyclone Nargis however led me to look at other possible contributing factors. I looked at Hurricane Katrina and the effects of the tidal surges and the effects of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes ( SLOSH) modeling that attempted to explain the “natural” phenomenon. Following Cyclone Katrina, the US the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) etc would have improved their accuracies and predictability of the effect of cyclones on delta land. Thus many delta lands now at risks from cyclones could benefit from their expertise. I think so.

THREE SURFACE EARTHQUAKES IN APRIL 2007 NEAR THE DELTA

However, when I looked the earthquake data near the worst hit area (or rather delta) at the estuary section of Myanmar, it seemed that the series of three earthquakes in Apr 2007 (last year) at near 5 Richter scale could have affect the sinking of the delta. Significantly those three quakes were near the surface and for a 5 Richter to be felt on a swamp land which would buffer and absorb most of the earth tremors, it seemed to me that perhaps the quake could even be higher below the surface. The housing along the delta would probably been less sensitive to the sinking given their type of material constructs and monitoring equipment etc.

Thus the sunken land masses could have aided the disastrous effects of the tidal surges as presently been attributed to Cyclone Nargis.

DEPLETION OF ARTESIAN WELLS AT DELTA AREAS

Another possible factor could be the depletion of artesian well waters at the delta areas. This could also have attributed to the sinking of the soft clay land in the vicinity. However I believe, the quake factor could have exacerbated the disaster.

SITING OF THE NEW MYANMAR CAPITAL (320 KM) NORTH OF YANGOON

I think the military junta would probably heave a sigh of relief given their hasty work in 2005 to move to a new capital in 2006 , ( another link) some 320km north of the old capital Yangoon (which is within the disaster zone as declared by the military junta). The military junta may not have been aware of the three quakes a year later since they are located so far away.

I hope the geologist, oil drilling companies, energy people, weather experts etc can make sense of the severity of their actions that affect the lives and livelihood of the estimated tens of thousands deaths and possibly millions displaced people.

Attached is a map depicting a possible relation between the Apr 2007 quakes and disaster area (Link).

Anyway, you can download the Apr 2007 earthquakes via the EMSC (European Mediterranean Seismological Centre) to transpose over Google Earth for some visual inspection analysis.

Take Care Myanmese!

Mikey